The S&P/Case-Schiller Index of Housing Prices was released today. This composite look at prices in twenty large cities has minimal interest for followers of the Flagstaff market, but I write about it because you may hear about it in the news. The data released today is for July.
Since the March 2012 lows, the 20-city composite has climbed 35.7%, but it’s still down 12% from bubble-level highs. Roughly, that’s the pattern of prices in Flagstaff although we’ve gained a bit more toward those “bubble-level” highs. There is still a way to go and would-be home sellers are going to have to be patient if they expect to match or exceed their 2006-2007 purchase prices.
As has been the case for some months the latest report from S&P/Case Shiller shows a continued slowing of home price increases. November results for both the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices were lower on a year-over-year basis than in October. The National Home Price Index (HPI) eked out a slightly higher annual increase than reported the previous month.
All 20 cities boasted year-over-year increases with the biggest changes in San Francisco with growth of 8.9 percent and Miami, up 8.6 percent. Dallas and Las Vegas each were 7.7 percent higher than in November 2013 and Denver was up 7.5 percent. Cleveland made the poorest showing at 0.6 percent while Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, and Washington, DC all had annual gains under 2 percent.
David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices said: “Prospects for a home run in 2015 aren’t good. Strong price gains are limited to California, Florida, the Pacific Northwest, Denver, and Dallas. Most of the rest of the country is lagging the national index gains. Moreover, these price patterns have been in place since last spring. Existing home sales were lower in 2014 than 2013, confirming these trends. Difficulties facing the housing recovery include continued low inventory levels….”
In other words, if we could only get some nice listings! Plus, a few other things like wage growth. Remember, all real estate is local. When we list your home, we talk about the market for your Flagstaff home. It’s unique. To schedule a meeting, call 928.714.0001 – The Elite Team at RE/MAX Peak Properties.
The S&P/Case Shiller Indices combine matched price pairs for thousands of houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The National HPI tracks the value of single-family houses within the nine U.S. Census divisions. The 10- and 20-City Indices are value-weighted averages of the 20 metropolitan area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000 so a current index value of 150 indicates a 50 percent appreciation rate since that date for a typical home located in the subject market.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) earlier released its Home Price Index for November showing home prices were up 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from October. October’s previously reported 0.6 percent gain was revised down to 0.4 percent. On a year over year basis the index rose 5.3 percent. Home prices measured by FHFA are now at the approximately level of October 2005 and are 4.5 percent below the April 2007 peak.
S&P Case-Schiller is Wall Street’s favorite real estate index. I’m not so crazy about it, partly because it lags reality by more than two months and partly because it draws its data from major cities. Nonetheless, it’s worth something.
The home-price index covering 10 major U.S. cities increased 13.6% in the year ended in October, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price report. The 20-city price index also increased 13.6%, close to the 13.7% advance expected by economists.
S&P experts read this data from October as indicating the home price boomlet we had mid-year may be over. Prices WILL KEEP GOING UP in 2014, just not so fast.
Home-price growth edging down, Case-Shiller says. All indices reported today show price growth.
U.S. home prices rose in July at the smallest monthly pace since March most tracked by a gauge from S&P/Case-Shiller saw slower growth, according to data released Tuesday. Read the full report on MarketWatch.com. At least one home building firm is profiting from price increases and the stock of KB Home Builders soared.