Flagstaff area single family homes sales came in strong for November with 63 sales. This was just off last November’s 69 sales. The hottest markets continue to be in all ranges under $500,000 and we anticipate a continued hot market as we head into 2018. Limited inventory will continue into the new year and will keep sellers encouraged with higher prices. Buyers in this market need to act quickly or they will miss out on the limited opportunities.
There were 5 condos and 20 townhomes sold in November. Limited condo and townhome listings will keep the sales down in the first quarter of 2018.
While there were some concerns about what the new tax laws might bring to the real estate world, it appears the short-term impact on the housing market in our area will be minimal. Interest rates remain historically low and we have new higher loan limits for 2018.
We will be publishing our 4th quarter newsletter at the end of January and will break down the Flagstaff sales for 2017 and our thoughts for 2018.
Single Family Flagstaff Home Sales – November 2017
NOTE: ACR = ACTIVE CONTINGENCY REMOVAL, PBK = PENDING TAKING BACKUP. THE DATA REPORTED HERE ARE BASED ON HOME SALES IN THE FLAGSTAFF METRO AREA (THE CITY OF FLAGSTAFF AND IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING COUNTY AREAS) AS REPORTED IN THE MULTIPLE-LISTING-SERVICE MAINTAINED BY THE NORTHERN ARIZONA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS.® THE DATA MAY NOT REFLECT ALL SALES (BUT IT SURELY REFLECTS MOST OF THEM).
To buy or sell a Flagstaff home, you need more than the general advice in this blog. That is where we can help. Contact The Elite Team at RE/MAX Peak Properties – Give us a call at 928-714-0001 or send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org for experienced, professional advice on purchasing or selling a home in Flagstaff.
With a 3.2% hike from last september, we saw some strong existing home sales. This includes Single Family, Townhomes, Condos and Co-Ops. These numbers are large in part due to the influx of first time home buyers and secondly buyers moving up. Homes listed remain extremely tight with buyers getting into bidding wars, if you are contemplating selling your home- Now is the time to do it! Click here for the most recent stats.
If you or someone you know is interested in buying or selling, give us a call @928-714-0001 or email us at email@example.com.
The new Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) report is a quarterly report to assist the housing industry track consumer confidence and concerns. Consumer are asked a series of questions about the economy, personal finances, reasons for buying or renting and other related topics. Among the questions, consumers are asked if they believe buying a home is a good financial decision, is it part of the American dream, and what is keeping renters from buying a home. Click on the link above to see the results.
While the majority of consumers feel now is a good time to buy a home, the survey shows that 32% of current renters to not feel like it is a good time to purchase. According to the survey results renters and current home owners still overwhelmingly feel that homeownership is part of the American dream.
Whether you are looking to purchase a home or perhaps deciding whether now is a good time to buy, the Elite Team is here to help. Call Eric and Jessica today at 928-714-0001 to set up a time to discuss the Flagstaff Housing Market.
According to the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors,® 2015 is shaping up to be the best year for home sales in the last 9 years. On the other hand, he addresses income and wealth inequality as a threat to future growth. All of this came in reporting on the statistics for pending home sales as of the end of March:
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on home purchase contract signings, climbed 1.1 percent to 108.6 in March from an upward revision of 107.4 in February and is now 11.1 percent above March 2014 (97.7). The index has now increased year-over-year for seven consecutive months and is at its highest level since June 2013 (109.4).
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says contract signings picked up in March as more buyers than usual entered this year’s competitive spring market. “Demand appears to be stronger in several parts of the country, especially in metro areas that have seen solid job gains and firmer economic growth over the past year,” he said.
Yun expects a gradual improvement in home sales in the months ahead but says insufficient supply and accelerating prices could be a drawback to sales reaching their full potential.
For information on the Flagstaff real estate market, or to buy or sell a Flagstaff home, call the Elite Team at RE/MAX Peak Properties: 928.714.0001.
The National Association of Realtors® released its data for October existing home sales today. Good news: The volume of sales of this national aggregate number was up 2.5% from October one year ago. The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $208,300, which is 5.5% above October 2013. This marks the 32nd consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said “Sales activity in October reached its highest annual pace of the year as buyers continue to be encouraged by interest rates at lows not seen since last summer, improving levels of inventory and stabilizing price growth,” he said. “Furthermore, the job market has shown continued strength in the past six months. This bodes well for solid demand to close out the year and the likelihood of additional months of year-over-year sales increases.”
Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 2.6 % to 2.22 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace – the lowest since March. Six months’ supply is usually considered a balanced market, so we’re not at the edge of shortage. Unsold inventory is now 5.2% higher than a year ago, when there were 2.11 million existing homes available for sale.
Looking ahead to 2015, “The growth in housing supply this year will likely prevent the drastic sales slowdown and coinciding spike in home prices we saw last winter due to low inventory,” says Yun. “However, more housing starts are needed to increase supply, meet current demand and keep price growth in check.”
Typically, first-time home buyers make up 40% of home sales. That’s not been true at all in 2014. This year, so far, they make up just 33% of total sales, according to today’s report from the National Association of Realtors®.
That makes it hard for so-called move-up buyers to make their moves since most of them need to sell their existing homes to move up. Overall, it’s a major depressing effect on home sales.
NAR’s chief economist says: “Less stringent credit standards and mortgage insurance premiums commensurate with current buyer risk profiles are needed to boost first-time buyer participation, especially with interest rates likely rising in upcoming years.”
You can find lots of Flagstaff real estate agent to give you optimistic advice; and there are some pessimists. I strive to be the realist. I hope you see that in my Monthly Flagstaff Real Estate Reports. This past week, I’ve been reading about national trends from a variety of analysts.
National Association of Realtors®
The National Association of Realtors® gathers data from all the multiple-listing services in the country. Like other sources, this data lags by a month what I can give in reporting on our local Flagstaff home sales market. An NAR economist provided some 10-year data that, I think, gives an interesting perspective on where our market is now. Of particular note is that 2014 has not produced home price increases as high as those produced in 2013.
Here are other highlights of the NAR housing data:
- Total homes sold in the United States for August 2014 is slightly below the ten-year average. That’s true for the West Region, where Arizona is. The Midwest and the South are the only two regions to show current sales above the ten-year August average.
- Regionally, since the low point of sales in 2010, there had been three consecutive year-over-year gains, but that changed this year with sales declining in August.
- The median home price in August 2014 is higher than the ten-year August average median price for the U.S. and all four regions. The West leads all regions with the highest home prices. (That may be why fewer homes are being sold in the West.)
- The median price year-over-year percentage change shows prices having a positive change for the last three years after struggling the previous six years. The West has predominately guided the direction of home prices for the U.S. and all regions over the ten-year cycle. For the U.S. and the four regions the best price percentage increase took place in 2005 except for the South, which had its best gains in 2013. The biggest decline took place in 2009 for all U.S regions except the West, which had the largest drop in 2008 when home values declined more than 20%. This August the Midwest is the only region to have a negative year-over-year price percentage change.
CoreLogic is a data supply company that split off from First American in 2010. CoreLogic’s real estate data is drawn from public records and propriety sources. According to CoreLogic, as reported by MarketWatch.com, year-over-year home-price growth fell to 6.4% in August, down from 6.8% in July and 11.4% in August 2013. The firm expects housing appreciation is expected to slow down even further, with annual growth in August 2015 hitting 5.2%.
Annual home-price growth in major cities is slowing down, with many still substantially below peak prices. Nationally, home prices in August were down 12.1% from a 2006 peak, according to CoreLogic.
CoreLogic data on the mortgage market suggests that severe credit tightening in 2014 is holding back the housing market. In May, credit availability for all home loans was half of what it was in the late 1990’s, when the housing market was making steady gains much like today, according to the firm’s Housing Credit Index.
Anthony B. Sanders, an economics professor at George Mason University, isn’t the only economist who has said lately that it’s not the credit availability that is the problem. Sanders recently said the main issue in the housing market is the income of borrowers, not the standards of lenders. He said the subprime collapse in 2008 damaged the finances of borrowers and that incomes, particularly for low-wage workers, have been stagnant.
Dave Liniger, the Chief Executive Officer of RE/MAX International, has been following housing trends since the early 1970’s. In the 11 years that I’ve been following him, his predictions have not been wrong. He sees a fairly flat market ahead into the middle of 2015 when the volume of sales will increase and continue strong through 2016-2017. What that means for prices is a local market matter – remember all real estate is local.
When you need some good advice about Flagstaff real estate, contact us: The Elite Team at RE/MAX Peak Properties.
Pending home sales rebounded in July and have now risen in four of the last five months, according to the National Association of Realtors® press release this morning. All major regions experienced healthy gains except for the Midwest, which saw a slight decline. The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, is still 2.1 percent below July 2013.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says favorable housing conditions are behind July’s higher contract activity. “Interest rates are lower than they were a year ago, price growth continues to moderate and total housing inventory is at its highest level since August 2012,” he said. “The increase in the number of new and existing homes for sale is creating less competition and is giving prospective buyers more time to review their options before submitting an offer.” Yun adds, “More importantly, steady job additions to the economy are helping family finances and giving them added confidence to enter the market.”
Still, Yun expects total home sales for 2014 to fall below results in 2013 by over 2% with median prices up about 5% this year and next.
This morning’s monthly press release from the National Association of Realtors® emphasized the gain in volume of home sales from June to July. Then it mentioned that July 2014 sales were 4.3% below the number of sales in July 2013. Just a little detail.
Here’s the full release: NAR Press Release on Existing Home Sales
Here’s my report on Flagstaff home sales in July 2014.
Mortgage applications are down, an indicator that the low home sales volume we saw nationally in June will continue in the near term, at least. Mortgage applications for home purchases as of June were down 15 percent from the same period last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The mortgage bankers attribute the slow growth to three factors: low housing inventory, young adults without jobs, and investors, having pushed up prices, are withdrawing from some markets.
Moody’s Analytics takes a more positive view, expecting stronger growth in the second half of the year and into 2015. Moody’s Analytics, attributes the more positive outlook to job growth. Access to mortgage financing could also improve as lenders compete more aggressively for purchase business.
- Low for-sale inventory will help to sustain house price and rent gains but at the expense of affordability in the short term.
- While the total number of vacant units has decreased by 4.2 percent from the first quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2014, the number of vacant units for sale has declined by 24.2 percent (485,000 units).
- Home mortgage purchase applications have picked up a bit recently with the traditional home-buying season underway, yet they’re still currently 13 percent below last year. For this reason, we’re lowering our overall homes sales forecast from 5.5 million to 5.4 million.
- Freddie Mac expects fixed rates to rise gradually during the second half of the year in part as a result of the Federal Reserve’s “tapering” of net mortgage-backed securities acquisitions. Expect the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to gradually rise higher, ending the year around 4.4 percent.
In the accompanying chart, Flagstaff is off the measurement line with 1.48 homes listed per household, so our inventory shortage is not as dramatic as in other parts of the country. Meanwhile we seem to be sharing the country-wide slowdown in home sales.
Interesting report on the National Association of Realtors® Economists’ Blog: Existing Home Sales by Price Tier.
But, perhaps not as interesting as this: Monthly Flagstaff Home Sales Report for May 2014 sales, including sales of Flagstaff homes by price range.
We’re eager to help you with your Flagstaff home search this weekend. Give us a call: 928-714-0001
Interesting slideshow (and commentary) about why continued low mortgage rates are not leading to a surge in home sales.
I’m eagerly awaiting the passage of enough time for all Northern Arizona MLS offices to enter their March 2014 sales data so that I can report on Flagstaff home sales for March. Meanwhile, take a look at Metro and Regional Price Data from the National Association of Realtors.®
Notably, the western region of the country is starting out better than elsewhere, according to the data analyzed by NAR. This could be because of the awful winter that hammered the Midwest and East Coast. Also of note is that Phoenix is NOT named among the top performing cities, as it was in the recovery of 2013. More soon, with a specific Flagstaff focus.
Meanwhile, search the Flagstaff MLS here!
If you know someone who wants to buy or sell a Flagstaff home, get them started with Flagstaff real estate on our Flagstaff custom real estate website!